Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) ‘Tej’ over the far Arabian Sea is likely to make landfall late tonight or very early hours of 24th Oct 2023. Presently, the storm is centred around 14.4°N and 53.4°E, about 165 NM south-southwest of Salalah. It will continue moving northwestward and head for Yemen-Oman border and cross coast around midnight. It is likely to weaken rapidly before crossing the coastline.
ESCS has already crossed abeam Socotra (Yemen), keeping the Island to its left and approaching the coast moving with a speed of 15 kmh. The core of the storm will weaken rapidly for multiple reasons. A drop in the sea surface temperatures has reduced the heat potential. The proximity of the coastline is enhancing land interaction. Also, dry air entrainment will degrade the structure and erode warm-core characteristics. Overall, the storm will weaken to a severe cyclonic storm at the time of landfall. Still, the winds may be as strong as 120-140kmh and accompanied by torrential rains in the coastal areas.
The forward section of the storm has already reached the coastline. Moderately strong winds and intermittent heavy rains have started lashing the coastal and adjacent interior parts. However, the worst is yet to come, with a deadly combination of high-speed winds and blinding rains. The storm may hold its grade for at least 6-8 hours after crossing the coast and thereafter weaken to a depression over deep interior parts of Yemen and Oman.
Indian seas have been experiencing intense tropical storms, at least, since last 5 years. A minimum of one or at times even two ESCS have been witnessed on either side of the Indian coastline. Even, a super cyclone ‘Amphan’ ravaged West Bengal in 2020. This is the 6th consecutive year for the Indian Seas to host an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm. Post-monsoon 2023 is likely to have the distinction of hosting simultaneous tropical storms in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. Another cyclone, albeit mild, as compared to ‘Tej’ is expected over the North Bay of Bengal within the next 12 hours. Of course, the storm will take a convenient recourse to head for Bangladesh.
