As expected, cyclone ‘Biparjoy’ has weakened into a very severe cyclonic storm. Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm have sustained winds of 167-221 kmh. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm get a little lower band of 118-166 kmh. Cyclone is still packed with winds of the order of 160 kmh. Wind intensity will gradually keep reducing, as the storm heads toward Kutch for making landfall on 15th June. Cyclone is expected to have strong winds of 125-135kmh when striking the coast on 15th afternoon.
Sea surface temperature is reducing from 31°C to 29°C over the extreme northeast Arabian Sea. A drop in the heat potential is leading to a slight weakening of the storm. Notwithstanding, winds in excess of 120kmh, accompanied by blinding rains have tremendous damaging potential. Weak structures and Kutcha houses may collapse. The felling of trees and snapping of power lines is quite likely. Disruption in communication and connectivity, including eroding roads and tracks will impact commuting. Inundation and flooding of low-lying areas will restrict speedy rescue and relief operations, post-landfall. High storm surge will get reinforced by the astronomical tide leading to tall waves along the shore.
The cyclone is manifested beautifully in the satellite imageries. Though its CDO (cloud dense overcast) has become a little asymmetric, but continues to be supported by the spiral banding. The storm is bravely battling the moderate vertical wind shear and is able to retain broad features. The storm had developed a microwave eye, indicative of its massive wind field and striking potential.
The cyclone is centred around 21°N and 67°E, about 300km abeam Veraval. It has moved slowly north-northwest in the past 6 hours. It is expected to change track to move initially northward for another 12hrs and steer northeastward tomorrow morning onwards. The storm is likely to make landfall on 15th June in the late afternoon hours as a severe cyclonic storm. It is expected to strike very close to Jakhau and Naliya in the Kutch region.
