Extremely Severe Cyclone Maha has re-curved towards the north and will gradually turn in east/northeast direction towards Gujarat. Due to its impact, cloud cover will gradually increase over South and West Rajasthan and we expect light scattered rain to commence over Southwest Rajasthan by tonight.
‘As the time for Cyclone Maha crossing Gujarat Coast nears, the rainfall activities will increase in Rajasthan and by November 6, we expect rain belt to cover the entire state. However, these activities would be patchy’, predict meteorologists at Skymet.
Apart from this Cyclone, another weather system that includes a Western Disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir along with its Cyclonic Circulation over Northwest Rajasthan would be responsible for triggering rain in the state.
Thus, the combination of all these systems would bring rain and thundershowers activities in Jodhpur, Barmer, Bikaner, Churu, Jaipur, Sri Ganganagar, Kota, Bundi, Sawai Madhopur, Ajmer, Bhilwara, Tonk, Udaipur, and Chittorgarh from the evening of November 6 until the morning of November 8.
These rainfall activities will bring down the day temperatures by two to four degree Celcius. However, November 8 onwards, rains would taper over the region and the weather would gradually start clearing up.
In the month of November, the formation of Western Disturbances results in rain over North Rajasthan. However, the south and southwestern parts of the state hardly see any rains during this time.
It is only when a significant weather system such as a Cyclone develops over the Northeast Arabian Sea, rains occur.
Moreover, the possibility of Cyclones re-curving towards Gujarat is very less. And only 10% of these Cyclones re-curve towards Gujarat and bring rain for South Rajasthan.
Image Credits – DNA India
Any information taken from here should be credited to Skymet Weather