This year Northeast Monsoon remained excess over South Peninsula so far. Between October 1 and December 11, 68% surplus rainfall has been received by South India. All the Meteorological divisions are either excess or large excess barring coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. Coastal Andhra Pradesh is surplus by 9% which lies in normal rain category whereas Telangana is deficient by 22%.
The intensity and frequency of low-pressure areas remained high over Bay of Bengal which has given fairly widespread moderate to heavy showers over Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and parts of Karnataka and Kerala. There was no cyclone in the month of October and November however cyclone Jawad in the month of December has given good rain over Andhra Pradesh.
Now we do not expect any significant weather system developing over Bay of Bengal for Arabian Sea during next 8 to 10 days. Northeast Monsoon will also remain weak. Rain activities over South Peninsular or will remain feeble. We can say that northeast monsoon will start withdrawing by the end of third week of December.
