Tropical cyclones continue to be complex, in terms of predicting their intensity and track. They remain notorious for quick changes and defying timelines. More than the intensification, their rapid weakening while over the sea, leave inexplicable situations, many a times. Cyclone ‘NILOFAR’ in the Arabian Sea was an intense storm of this season, befitting in to this category.
Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, both, are considered as the deadliest basins for intense tropical storm activity. The storms become more frequent and strong in late summer when the difference between the temperature aloft and sea surface becomes large. High level of heat potential and sea surface temperature exceeding 26˚C are the basic but essential requirements towards formation of cyclones.
As compared to 2013, wherein the cyclones formed in quick succession, year 2014 remained a shallow season for tropical storms. After making a scary beginning, both, in pre monsoon with cyclone Naunak and in post monsoon season with ‘HUDHUD’, the year 2014 is possibly going to end on a softer note for the Indian seas. The most impacting storm HUDHUD, right at the start of the season, did not leave any trail of cyclones later and the Indian coast mostly remained free from threat of any catastrophic damage. Northeast monsoon season now enters its last leg, without any positive indicators for any further cyclone activity, this year. This might as well be construed as end of cyclone season for the Indian subcontinent.
