Southwest monsoon 2023 is in the closing days and the curtains will get drawn on 30thSeptember. Having shown promising signs of some recovery during the 2nd and 3rd week of September, fag end of monsoon has run roughshod over most parts of India, except few pockets here and there. The tail end of the month was expected to fire few monsoon bursts, particularly over the areas which needed them most, but failed to reach the mark. Consequently, with just three days to spare, the season seem to be heading for a disappointing finish of ‘Below Normal’.
Monsoon 2023 witnessed upheavals through the season and never a quiet moment, on some count or the other. Sluggish start and insufficient rains in June was followed by aqueous July for most parts, outside East and Northeast India. Large intra-seasonal variation marred the second half of the season, as well. Core monsoon month of August collapsed to an all time low rainfall, attributable to prolonged ‘break monsoon’ conditions. Scare of drought became eminent, but thankfully averted. Courtesy, trail of monsoon systems in the Bay of Bengal in September saved the grace of the season, albeit to only partial extent.
Month of September commenced with a shortfall of 11% rainfall of long period average (LPA). Decent recovery during middle of the month brought the deficit down to 5% of LPA. However, poor rains over north, west and eastern parts during the closing phase has raised the seasonal shortfall to 6% of LPA. Remaining days of September do not seem to be reassuring any better picture. Season looks to be poised for ‘below normal’ performance, with eastern and southern parts sharing the misery.
In the beginning itself, there were fears of under performance on account of growing El Nino, mid- way through the season. El Nino generally does not spare monsoon unequivocally. On 80% of El Nino events, monsoon goes corrupt to finish with ‘drought’ or ‘below normal’. Out of these, large chunk of 60% occasions face the curse of drought, with rainfall deficiency in excess of 10% of LPA.