El Nino Takes Toll, Monsoon 2023 Ends 'Below Normal'

September 30, 2023 5:01 PM|

The impact of El Nino always remained a matter of concern, as it squeezes the seasonal rainfall.  Of course, degree of adversity vary anything between ‘below normal’ and ‘drought’.  Occasionally, it does spare the Indian sub-continent from its unpropitious impact, as it happened in 1997. Notwithstanding, it continues to be the most powerful fluctuation in the climate pattern, across the globe.

ENSO:  El Nino conditions in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific have strengthened further. Ocean and atmospheric coupling is fairly strong and the respective variables are consistent with a moderate El Nino event. Almost all the models forecast continuation of the EL Nino event well up to winters of Northern Hemisphere, extendable to early spring of 2024. Subsequent weakening may ultimately turn ENSO-neutral before the next monsoon season.

 Entire Nino region remains much warmer than the average. Nino 3.4, the principal indicator for predicting El Nino has reached an all time high of +1.7°C, since March 2016. The negative phase of Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is complimenting El Nino, as is usually observed.  Negative SOI refers to the situation when abnormally high air pressure covers Indonesia and the western tropical Pacific and abnormally low air pressure covers the eastern tropical Pacific.

IOD :  A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is on its way. As expected, the index is growing in magnitude and its weekly value is +1.45°C, as on 24September 2023, the highest since October 2019. This is the 6th week above the positive threshold ( +0.4°C). All models predict the positive IOD to persist , at least till end of the year. A moderately positive IOD timely emerged to mitigate harsh impact of El Nino decimating core monsoon month August and acting saviour for September.

    MJO :  Unlike a standing pattern like ENSO or IOD, the MJO is a travelling pattern that propagates eastward    at approximately 4-8m/s, through the atmosphere, above the warm parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The overall circulation pattern manifests itself most clearly as anomalous rainfall.  The Madden Julian Oscillation is currently weak and nearly indiscernible. There is no consensus among the numerical models regarding its track and strength , in the next 2 weeks.  Possibly, the MJO will meander  over the Maritime Continent and Western Pacific with minimal amplitude, over the coming fortnight.  The current positioning of index may marginally help to sustain the monsoon activity over the Indian seas, more so for Bay of Bengal.

ENSO is a naturally occurring phenomenon. Under the warmer envelop of lower atmosphere and ocean, these events may become extreme in future. El Nino can bring increased rainfall to southern South America and the Horn of Africa and severe drought to Australia, Indonesia and parts of Southern Asia including India. Courtesy, positive IOD, evolving ‘just in time’, Indian monsoon could get off with a marginal damage. Curtains are drawn with season 2023, yet again, ending ‘below normal’.

Similar Articles

thumbnail image
March 20, Today Marks The Spring Equinox: Day-Night Duration Nearly Equal

The official transition from winter to spring, known as the SPRING EQUINOX, occurs today! It’s time when the Sun crosses the celestial equator precisely at 2:31 PM, delivering warmer, longer days to the Northern HemiSphere. As autumn arrives, the South enjoys colder evenings.

posted on:
thumbnail image
दिल्ली में बढ़ेगी गर्मी! शुष्क और तपता रहेगा वीकेंड, बारिश की संभावना हुई कम

दिल्ली में गर्मी बढ़ रही है, पिछले 3 दिनों में तापमान 4°C बढ़ा है। आज अधिकतम 34-35°C, न्यूनतम 17°C तक रह सकता है। मार्च अब तक लगभग शुष्क बना हुआ है, सिर्फ 2mm बारिश दर्ज हुई है। 26-28 मार्च को तापमान 40°C के करीब पहुंचने की संभावना है। वहीं,पश्चिमी विक्षोभ से मैदानी इलाकों में बारिश की संभावना नहीं है।

posted on:
thumbnail image
Hot Belt of 40°C Expands: Covers Odisha, Maharashtra, Telangana and Rayalaseema; Relief Likely

Heatwave conditions are setting in much earlier than usual this year, with temperatures soaring past 40°C in Odisha, Maharashtra, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh. Slight relief is expected as rain and thunderstorms are likely between March 21-24 across several states.

posted on:
thumbnail image
[Hindi] सम्पूर्ण भारत का मार्च 21, 2025 का मौसम पूर्वानुमान

अगले 24 घंटे के दौरान, पश्चिम बंगाल, झारखंड, मणिपुर, मिजोरम, त्रिपुरा और उत्तर छत्तीसगढ़ में हल्की से मध्यम बारिश और गरज के साथ बिजली चमकने तथा तेज हवाओं की संभावना है।

posted on: