El Niño has already sparked much discussion this season and with indications coming true, it is time for some reality check. Sea surface temperatures have been showing warming trend across Pacific Ocean for last many weeks.
Although there had been slight fluctuations but most of the weather models have increased the probability of El Niño from 40% to over 70% by the fall.
There is still a long way to go before the declaration of an El Niño year but even in its evolving stage, it holds the power to corrupt ongoing Monsoon in India.
El Niño is a very complex phenomena to explain and is quite famous for its notorious behavior. Particularly for sub-tropical region that bears the maximum impact of this phenomena, invariably linked with less rainfall.
It does not abide by rule book and thus keeps meteorologists on toes every time it makes an appearance. The worst part is that it affects large parts of world but not in similar manner every time and everywhere.
El Niño is one of the longest atmospheric process which takes months to establish. The journey is never smooth and goes through several variations. For instance, it may collapse in between that too without any indication or reason.
It is very rare that El Niño stays for two years but it has been witnessed. According to weathermen, second year of the two consecutive El Niño years will not be as dangerous as the first one.
Similarly, evolving El Niño can lead to below normal rains and possibly a mild drought. Meanwhile, devolving El Niño may not result in drought, but it does gives below normal rainfall.
Going by research, El Niño can be divided into three categories:
1. Normal El Niño: This is most common form that we get to see. During this situation, we see nearly uniform warming of entire Pacific Ocean.
2. Canonic El Niño: During this, Nino 1+2 gets warmer much earlier than Nino 3.4 region
3. Modoki El Niño: This is one of the rare occurrences, during which only central region of Pacific gets warmer, while rest of the areas are relatively cooler
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