Finally, the Niño 3.4 index, which is linked with the Indian Monsoon, has come down to negative. It was last seen as neutral on August 18, 2014. It was the time when El Niño was evolving and later spoilt the Monsoon that year. El Niño holds the power to corrupt Monsoon even in the evolving phase.
The Pacific Ocean had shown a warming trend way back in the Indian summer of 2014. Here’s a look at the Niño Index (in °C) as on August 18, 2014:
The Niño 3.4 index kept on increasing gradually. However, a temporary drop was witnessed at the fag end of 2014. The value had crossed 0.5°C by the beginning of 2015 and reached 0.6°C on January 26 and kept increasing thereafter. It had reached the highest value of 3.1°C on November 23, 2015. The table below will give clear picture of the rising trend of the Nino index:
The Niño index has been witnessing a rapid decline since March 2016 and as of now it has reached the negative value of – 0.1.
Here’s a look at the latest status of the SST departures in degree Celsius: 
Pacific cools down
The Pacific Ocean has cooled down considerably. The thermocline started showing signs of cooling even earlier and now it’s time for the sub surface temperatures to show a decline in temperatures. The thermocline had been cooling down for the last 4 weeks and now even the sub surface is showing a drop. During the last two months, the thin layer of positive subsurface temperature (as indicated by the brownish part) anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific has steadily decreased. Now, it seems to have diminished completely. The image below will make the above statement quite clear.
However, the La Niña watch is on and it will keep developing during the Indian Monsoon with a 75% chance of La Niña occurring during the fall and winter of 2016-17.
Image credit - Climate Prediction Center
Please Note: Any information picked from here should be attributed to skymetweather.com
