With the retreat of the southwest monsoon picking up pace, conditions become favourable for cyclogenesis in the Indian Seas, on either side of the coastline. Invariably, the Arabian Sea takes the lead and the Bay of Bengal follows. Last year, two cyclones formed in October, one on either side of the coastline. These were nearly simultaneous, as Tej, an extremely severe cyclone emerged in the Arabian Sea between the 20th and 24th of October 2023 and a very severe cyclonic storm Hamoon popped up in the Bay of Bengal between the 21st and 25th of October 2023. While, cyclone Tej headed for Yemen, storm Hamoon struck Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh.
There are early leads of a post-monsoon storm likely to come up in the Arabian Sea. There is a cyclonic circulation marked over the Southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region. This is a prelude to the anticipated cyclone, a maiden storm of the post-monsoon season of 2024. This circulation will get organized and emerge prominently as a low-pressure area, around 10th-11th October over the same region. The weather system is likely to meander over this part of the ocean for nearly 4 days, till 12th October. Later, it is expected to intensify and move deep into the sea.
It is a little early to preempt any authentic information about the likely storm. The models as such, degrade with a lead time of 4-5 days. The storms are known for defying the timelines, track and intensity, even when emerging strongly over the ocean. The Arabian Sea is more dubious than the Bay of Bengal. More often than not, the post-monsoon storms of the Arabian Sea head for Oman, Yemen and the Somali Coast. Yet, their curvature and subsequent travel towards Gujarat can not be ruled out. Prediction with more clarity and precision is likely after keeping the system under observation for about 72 hours. The storm, if any, will be named ‘DANA’, as suggested by the Arab nation Qatar.
