The month of April passed off without a storm in the Indian Seas, making it 4th clean year in a row. The last cyclone in April was an extremely severe cyclonic storm 'FANI' during fag end of April 2019. The storm made landfall on 03rd May near Puri in Odisha. Meteorological conditions are building up favourably for the first storm of this season in the Indian Seas.
A cyclonic circulation is likely to come up over the Southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) and adjoining equatorial region on 05th May. It is expected to organize further and emerge on the sea surface as low-pressure area over the same region, the next day. Environmental conditions like wind shear and ocean surface temperatures seem to be favourable for the further growth of the system. Initial perturbations coming up above 5 degrees north latitude have the potential to sustain and grow.
Last year, Asani was the maiden cyclone of the year to come up over BoB. The storm had initiated as a cyclonic circulation over South Andaman Sea and Southeast BoB. This weather system moved northwestward and strengthened to a tropical storm on 08th May 2022. The next day, it became a severe cyclonic storm. Subsequently, as it came closer to the coast, met with high wind shear, weakening to a cyclonic storm on 10th May and downgrading further to a deep depression over the ocean itself. The deep depression crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast on 11th May in the evening hours. It rapidly weakened to a low-pressure area over land, the next day.
Tropical storms originating over the South Andaman Sea and Southeast BoB have the potential of strengthening by virtue of impending long sea travel. The longer they surf the sea surface, the better the chances are to become powerful. The track of these storms becomes unpredictable in the initial stage. The entire east coast from Andhra Pradesh to West Bengal and further on to Bangla Desh and Myanmar is vulnerable to cyclone strikes. Though, the majority of these systems head for Bangla Desh but the deviations can not be ruled out during the early days of formation. Extremely severe cyclonic storm 'FANI' and super cyclone 'AMPHAN' (May 2020) are the recent destroyers of Odisha and West Bengal respectively.
The next cyclonic storm forming in the Indian Seas will be named 'Mocha'. Southeast BoB and the Andaman Sea need to be kept under observation for the next 3 days. More authentic information on the track and intensity of the likely storm may have to wait for 72 hours.
