Indian seas are in the thick of the Northeast Monsoon season. The month of November is synonymous with the peak of stormy activity but somehow remained dormant so far. The only post-monsoon storm in this season was ‘DANA’, a severe cyclonic storm in October 2024. Dana was a Cat-I equivalent severe cyclonic storm over the Bay of Bengal between the 22nd and 26th of October. The storm crossed the Odisha coast near Dhamra port during the intervening night of 24th and 25th Oct 2024. The likely storm in the Bay of Bengal will be altogether different in terms of track and impact over the Indian coastline.
The precursors to the storm indicate the likelihood of a cyclonic circulation coming up over the extreme South Andaman Sea, south of Nicobar Islands on 21st Nov 2024. Meteorologically, the weather system coming up over these areas, in the close proximity to the equator, has minimal chance of growth due to the least Coriolis Force at lower latitudes. However, the storms, quite often defy such norms and come up with unusual track and intensity. The likely cyclone could be one of those and keep the Indian coastline on the tenterhooks during the upcoming week.
The cyclonic circulation over the equatorial region may gain latitude and therefore, become more marked and organized as well, between 22nd and 23rd Nov. If so, a low-pressure area may form over the region, the second day, on 23rd Nov 2024. It is not prudent to prognosticate it further and speculate its track and intensity, at this stage. It is advisable that the system takes, at least the preliminary shape of low pressure to postulate its further movement.
If the weather system turns into a storm, it will be the second cyclone of this season. The storm will be named ‘Fengal’ as suggested by the member country Saudi Arabia. The cyclone name will be pronounced as ‘Feinjal’. The storms over the Bay of Bengal in November generally head for North Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal. Bangladesh also falls within the firing range of these storms. However, the emerging system may turn out to be an outlier and keep both, Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu ‘on toes’ from this weekend to the start of next week.
