Early forecasts of El Nino for Monsoon 2020 emerge, neutral conditions with more than 50 percent probability

March 18, 2020 3:04 PM|

Southwest Monsoonis nearing for the Indian subcontinent. The ongoing pre-monsoon season will soon be followed by Monsoon. Although Monsoon is still three months away, forecasts for Monsoon start storming in March onwards.

Even thefaintest appearance of El Ninostarts casting shadows upon Monsoon.

Looking at current stats, since mid-September 2019 onward, the Pacific Ocean has been sufficiently warmer than normal. Specifically, Nino 3.4 has been sufficiently warmer and the quarterly index for the last three successive events remains close to 0.5.

Current model projections are indicating neutral conditions during Monsoon months with a probability of more than 50%.  In other words, in this Monsoon,El Ninois likely to remain neutral with a probability of 50%.

But how are these predictions made? What is the one main ingredient for all Monsoon forecasts? Here we dive in deeper into that-

Ocean’s heat potential has got a significant role in the performance of Monsoon in India. To find this heat potential, scientists measure ocean’s heat indices, and this is exactly where the forecasts lie. One of the top indices is El Nino. This is one of the indices that finds a strong correlation to Monsoon.

Another component that raises many eyebrows around Monsoon forecasts is the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) which is based on Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average in the Nino 3.4 region. This is the principle measure in monitoring, accessing andpredicting El Nino. ONI or Oceanic Nino Index can be defined as a 3 month running mean of SST departures in the 3.4 region.

To be qualified for the El Nino episode, this threshold must be exceeded for at least a period of 5 consecutive overlapping 3 seasons.

As matter of fact, India is a farming based economy where 60% of its cultivable lands depends on the Monsoon rains. Kharif is the main crop during Monsoon in India. Bad rains in Monsoon are a direct indicator for a bad crop yield.

Image Credits-The Economist

All information taken from here should be attributed to Skymet Weather. 

Similar Articles

thumbnail image
पश्चिमी विक्षोभ लगातार सक्रिय, हिमालयी राज्यों में बारिश और बर्फबारी की चेतावनी

इस बार मार्च में भी पश्चिमी विक्षोभ सक्रिय बना हुआ है, जिससे पहाड़ी और मैदानी क्षेत्रों दोनों में प्रभाव देखने को मिलेगा। जहां हिमालयी राज्यों में बर्फबारी की कमी दूर होगी, वहीं उत्तर भारत के किसान ओलावृष्टि और बारिश के कारण सतर्कता बरतने की जरूरत होगी।

posted on:
thumbnail image
Series of Western Disturbances to Bring Rain and Snow to Western Himalayas

Heavy rain and snowfall is likely over the Western Himalayas for the next few days. Northern plains, including Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and parts of Rajasthan, may see scattered rain during Holi (March 14), with a chance of isolated hailstorms. Farmers should stay alert, as hail could impact standing crops.

posted on:
thumbnail image
[Hindi] सम्पूर्ण भारत का मार्च 12, 2025 का मौसम पूर्वानुमान

अगले 24 घंटे के दौरान सिक्किम, अरुणाचल प्रदेश, असम, मेघालय, नागालैंड, अंडमान और निकोबार द्वीपसमूह, केरल और लक्षद्वीप में हल्की से मध्यम बारिश और गरज के साथ बौछारें पड़ सकती हैं।सिक्किम और उत्तराखंड में भी हल्की बारिश और बर्फबारी हो सकती है। तमिलनाडु और पंजाब में हल्की बारिश होने की संभावना है।

posted on:
thumbnail image
Weather update and forecast for March 12 across India

During the next 24 hours, light to moderate rain and snowfall is possible over the Western Himalayan region. Light rain is possible over North Punjab, Sikkim, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.

posted on: