The arrival of the southwest monsoon over Kerala was announced on 29th May, amidst controversial onset conditions. Rainfall deficiency for the state of Kerala has been mounting since then and has become huge, -58% between 01st – 09th June. Despite heavy rains over northeast India, the countrywide shortfall has also been climbing ever since the arrival of the monsoon and stands with a large deficit of -42%, during the same period. Pan India deficiency over the last 2 days, on 07th and 08th June, has been the highest at -65% and -68% respectively.
Cumulative Pan India rainfall for the first 8 days of June 2022 is one of the lowest in the recent past. The figure matches very close to June 2019, when the monsoon itself had arrived on 08th June. The month of June 2019 had ended with a large paucity of -32%, the highest since June 2014.
Countrywide Rainfall 01-08 June (mm) : 2018 – 2022
Subdued rainfall is expected to continue for the next 4-5 days. Heavy rains will be confined to northeast India. Rainfall activity will also pick up over Coastal Karnataka, Goa, and South Konkan over the next 3 days. Moderate rains with few heavy spells are likely during this period. Mumbai will experience mostly light rain with chances of moderate spell for a short duration in a few areas. Over the interior parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha, isolated localized heavy rain and thundershower are expected.
Pan India rainfall deficiency may grow further in the next 3-4 days. Thereafter, courtesy of heavy rains over northeast India, Sikkim, and Sub Himalayan West Bengal and West Coast, partial recovery is expected. The Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon is likely to advance along the Western Ghats. Bay of Bengal stream will follow with a lag of 3-4 days.
