Until now, Monsoon 2022 has remained very good for the entire Gujarat. Between June 1 and August 26, Gujarat recorded 38% surplus rain. Region wise, Saurashtra and Kutch region is surplus by 49% and Gujarat region by 30%.
The month of July as well as first half of August witnessed heavy downpour over many parts of Gujarat leading to flood like situation. Almost all the low-pressure areas that developed over West Central Bay of Bengal travelled in westerly direction up to Gujarat leading to heavy downpour.
The last two weather systems which originated over North Bay of Bengal have taken a northwesterly route. Their impact on Gujarat was minimal. Now, we do not expect any significant development over Bay of Bengal or Arabian Sea. Therefore, weather of Gujarat will remain completely dry. Rain surplus will erode gradually and temperatures will rise.
Most of the water reservoirs in the state are full. Therefore, this dry spell may not have any significant adverse impact. Withdrawal of Monsoon usually commences from September 20 and completes by October 5th from Gujarat. Therefore, hopes are still alive for a revival of Monsoon over the state in in September. However, heavy downpour which was seen during July and August may not be there.