Rajasthan is one of the states which has received surplus rain. West Rajasthan is large excess by 93% and East Rajasthan is excess by 21%. The month of July was very generous for Rajasthan in terms of rainfall. Most of the eastern, southern and southwestern parts of Rajasthan have recorded surplus rainfall. However, rain activities remained below par over Northwest Rajasthan.
The reason for surplus rain over Rajasthan can be attributed to the formation of several low-pressure areas over the West Central Bay of Bengal which travelled in a Westerly direction towards east Rajasthan and Gujarat. Moreover, the cyclonic circulation formed one after another over western parts of Rajasthan as well as over the northeast Arabian Sea.
We have not seen any significant system developing over the Bay of Bengal since last week. The axis of the monsoon trough has also moved North over the foothills of the Himalayas leading to drier-than-normal conditions over northwest and West India including Rajasthan. The axis of the monsoon trough will remain north of its normal position for the next 3 to 4 days. Therefore, we do not expect any significant weather activities over Rajasthan until then.
A cyclonic circulation has developed over the South in adjoining parts of Southwest Rajasthan which may give isolated light rain over the Southern districts of Rajasthan. But these rains will be insignificant and will have a significant impact. Therefore, we can say that the rain surplus of Rajasthan will reduce in the coming days.