The Arrival of winters over the northern plains has unusually been delayed. In the absence of any significant weather activity over the mountains, the wait is getting longer and uncertain too. Mercury levels in the plains remain in the high teens and the mild breeze supports moderation of typical chill. Even, the day temperatures continue to hover in the low and mid 30s, extending the warm conditions, all through the afternoon hours. Misty mornings with a slight nip in the early hours are the only distant calls, so far, in anticipation of cool weather.
The Month of November, as such, is the least rainiest month for northern plains. Decent widespread wet spell is only an exception than a routine, during this month. The snowfall also remains confined to the higher reaches and that too, is infrequent during the first half of the month. The lower reaches and the foothills do witness cloudy skies and some light rain in the second fortnight of the month.
The hilly states have witnessed a large deficit of rain and snow this season, so far. Even, the plains have not had any stint of rains after the withdrawal of southwest monsoon in the fag end of September. A prolonged absence of weather activity over the higher areas of Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh has led to unusually warm conditions across the region. Both day and night temperatures continue to struggle to reach close to the average for the season. Rather, the mercury has remained nearly 4°-6°C higher than the day temperature over most parts of Rajasthan, Western parts of Haryana and border areas of Punjab.
Now, a western disturbance is likely to arrive on 10th Nov 2024. It is not a strong system, yet, good enough to break the monotony of extended warm and dry spells. While, the mountains will have scattered rain in the low and mid reaches and light snowfall above 15,000 feet, the foothills of Punjab and Haryana may observe the first sprinkle of this season. Jammu, Samba, Kathua, Pathankot, Amritsar, Una, Chandigarh, and Panchkula are likely to have cloudy skies with light rainfall, early next week. The passage of the system in the wake could leave some cold air and lead to a drop in the night temperatures, to start with. Typical winter chill over a large area may still have to wait for another active weather system, more likely by the next weekend, around 16th-17thNov 2024.
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