Temperatures have been rising sharply over many parts of Maharashtra. The rise in the mercury level is more conspicuous over the eastern half of the state, spanning Vidarbha and Marathwada. The entire state is confronting a double whammy of dismal rains and mounting heat during the ongoing season. Fear is that the damaging combination of soaring heat and dwindling moisture may impact the wheat crop adversely. Blame it on climate change, the entire state may have two-fold setbacks on account of agricultural and hydrological scarcity.
Being a large state with geographical diversity, weather conditions remain volatile for the state. Irrespective of the season, these are rarely equitable over different parts, impacting the standing crops and overall yield. Maximum and minimum temperatures outside the acceptable envelope for a longer duration spoil the grain filling and lowers the production levels.
The state of Maharashtra contributes less than 5% to the Pan-India wheat production but still figures amongst the leading wheat-producing states, ranking 8th in the order of merit. Its contribution was recorded high last year with 2474 thousand tonnes and lowest in 1987 with mere 536 thousand tonnes. Weather played a major role in the all-time high yield, last year.
December 2021 had surplus rains across the state and January 2022 witnessed excess rains in Vidarbha. Moisture levels, both in the air and subsurface remained adequate and bearable heat at the time of grain filling proved catalytic. Contrasting weather conditions have prevailed during the current Rabi season. December 2022 was largely dry and got followed by bone-dry Jan and Feb (so far).
The 'Standardized Precipitation Index' for the state for the month of December 2022 and January 2023 has been the lowest. The SPI ranges between 0 and 0.5 indicating a high level of aridity. The crops need to be supported by other means of irrigation. Natural rains will be relatively far and few and the remaining days of February will witness dry conditions.
Heat potential is likely to build up in the coming days. The month of March is expected to see dry days with the surface temperature soaring and nearing 40 degrees or even beyond. Day temperature has already exceeded 35-36 degrees at many places, albeit for a few days. Akola, Washim, Nagpur, Wardha, Parbhani, Jeur, Nanded and Sholapur have touched their mid and high-30s in the last week. Heat stress is likely to build up further and may not augur well for the wheat crop across the state.
