After the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from Punjab, Haryana and parts of Rajasthan, at fag end of September, there has hardly been any rainfall over these parts. The last spell of light rain was on 06th October and totally dry, thereafter. The capital city Delhi has remained completely dry after the official withdrawal of monsoon on 02nd October 2024. Punjab, Haryana and Delhi have been rain deficits of 74%, 96% and 100% for the season, since 01st October 2024. The absence of clouds and rainfall has led to unusually warm weather conditions across the region. There is no likelihood of any change over the next one week or ten days.
The national capital has observed above-normal minimum temperature for the 8th consecutive day in November. The mean temperature for the first eight days stands at 17.4°C, as against the average of 15°C. As per Pentad normal, Delhi should be recording a morning temperature of under 15°C by now. The base observatory at Safdarjung registered a minimum of 18.1°C today morning. Similar is the case with most stations of Punjab and Haryana. Amritsar, Bhatinda, Ludhiana, Patiala, Chandigarh, Ambala, Karnal, Rohtak and Kurukshetra recorded minimum temperatures between 17°-19°C, about 5°-7°C above the normal range. Ambala and Kurukshetra in Haryana were the warmest with mercury reaching 18.5°C and 19°C, respectively. Such temperatures are more often observed in October and are an exception this year, in November.
There is no major weather system likely to affect the plains of North India. Even the hills await an active western disturbance, to open the count of this season. Cool and chill in the plains follow decent snowfall in the mountains. There is a feeble upper air trough moving across the extreme northern region of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh. It is not likely to make any dent, as such. This will be followed with another mild system, but stronger than the current one. A western disturbance will approach these parts on 13th November and affect the mid and higher reaches between 13th and 16th Nov. Even, Srinagar, Pahalgam, Gulmarg and higher reaches are likely to witness scattered rain/snow on 15th and 16th Nov.
The foothills of the Jammu division and Punjab-Haryana may have light rains on 15th-16th November. More probable stations are Jammu, Samba, Kathua, Pathankot, Amritsar, Gurdaspur, Chandigarh, Ambala and Dehradun. The interiors of Punjab and Haryana and the national capital will have to wait for another system, to break the jinx of dry spell. Only, the seasonal drop in temperature can be expected over these parts and no winter shiver is likely to set in, at least till 3rd week of November.
