After poor Monsoon rains in June, July too commenced with a 43% deficit – highest for the season - and remained so till 12th July.
However, in the last one week there has been a series of cyclonic circulations moving across Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan, which has resulted in fairly widespread moderate to good rain, heavy at times in the region. This has helped in pulling down the cumulative deficit to 31% as on 21st July.
Though, it looks like a good recovery it doesn’t seem to be lasting long as the last few days of July may only experience patchy rains of light to moderate intensity.
Even with this recovery there are pockets such as Gujarat and Marathwada where the deficiency is alarming, over 60%. Telangana, Madhya Maharashtra and Punjab stare at a deficit of 50% or more. It is 40% or more in Vidarbha, Saurashtra, Kutch, entire Rajasthan, Haryana, west Uttar Pradesh and coastal Andhra Pradesh.
According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the cumulative deficit at the end of July is estimated to be around 20%. The analogue analysis of the past data between 1877 and 2013 reveals that there were only 2 years (1877 and 2002) when there was a deficit of 30%. Both these years were El Nino years, experiencing severe drought.
During the same period there were 5 years (1877, 1918, 1972, 1987, and 2002) when June and July experienced a deficit of 25%. The seasonal deficit during these years stood at 23%, which amounts to severe drought.
Drought Category
- Mild drought: -11% to -15%
- Moderate drought: -16% to -20%
- Severe drought: -20% and above
During the same period from 1877 to 2013 there were 10 years when the deficit in the months of June and July was 20%. All these years were again El Nino years. The seasonal deficit during these years also ended up at 18% amounting to moderate drought.
And 16 years during the same period the deficit for June and July has been 15%. Out of these 16 years 11 were again El Nino years. The season during this time ended with an average deficit of 14% resulting in mild drought.
Meanwhile, Skymet carried out the study on all worldwide dynamical models and the current state still points towards 60% chance of drought in India, with 40% chance of below normal rainfall. Incase of drought there is a 20% probability of severe drought and 50% chance of moderate drought.
This clearly shows that the country still stares at the probability of drought and there is zero chance of normal or excess rain being experienced during this Monsoon season.
Picture Courtesy: gg2.net
