Goa is expected to witness extended monsoon rains, spilling over to 2nd half of October. Normal date of withdrawal from the state (14 Oct) nearly coincides with the complete retreat from the country by 15thOctober. The state seldom observes the stipulated timeline and invariably overshoot the margin, at times by nearly 2weeks.
However , the spread and intensity of rains shrink in October, except during stormy activity of post monsoon. The monthly normal rainfall also narrows down to just 145mm, as against 4-5 times of peak monsoon months. In the absence of rains, mercury rises by roughly 2-3°C or even beyond on partly sunny days.
Monsoon withdrawal during the last 3 consecutive years has remained behind schedule and 2020 had the distinction of most delayed monsoon withdrawal on 28thOctober. The monsoon retreat was complete on Oct 25 and Oct 16 in the year 2018 and 2019 respectively.
Retreat of monsoon from the state has close correlation with the commencement of withdrawal from North India. This year also, the monsoon withdrawal will be listed amongst the most delayed and next to 2019, when it started on 09thOctober.
In view of late withdrawal, sporadic and patchy showers will continue for the next one week. Courtesy, active cyclonic circulations on either side of the coastline, in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, South Peninsula will experience wet spell across the region during this period. The cyclonic circulation over Southeast Arabian Sea, off Karnataka coast will shift close to the shore and also move northward, brushing the Goan coast.
Intermittent showers, at times heavy, are likely over the state for the next 5-6 days. South Goa will be more breached than north, particularly between 09thand 11thOctober. Most of the weather activity will occur during evening and night hours. Forenoon and afternoon hours could be partly sunny, albeit with a possibility of stray and patchy shower in some parts.
Strong sea breeze with warm and humid conditions are likely to be the hallmark between 1000hr and 1600hr. Nights are expected to be pleasant for the off season tourists, with some ‘hit and miss’ showers all along the serene beachline of Goa.