Main features driving the monsoon rains over the country are : Low Pressure Area over coastal parts of Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh, off shore trough from Gujarat to Kerala and East-West shear zone across central parts. Month of July has witnessed excess rains on all the 11days of the month, albeit bashing mostly the central parts across Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and North Telangana. Rainfall deficiency observed earlier in the season has been made good for these sub divisions. However, the eastern states comprising Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal continue to reel with large shortfall to the anxiety of the farmers.
Low pressure area over Odisha is likely to move over land in the next 24 hours. Rainfall belt will persist over Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Telangana. Zone of convergence will shift heavy rainfall deep inside the central parts of the country on the subsequent 3 days. Also the low pressure will strengthen again over North Madhya Maharashtra and Gujarat due to fresh feed from the Arabian Sea. Widespread rains with heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is expected over Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Southwest Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat during this period.
Following this low pressure area is another system, likely to come up over Bay of Bengal (BoB). A well marked cyclonic circulation is expected to enter North BoB from Myanmar on 13-14July 2022. Low pressure may become well marked over head Bay before moving inland. This system will relatively move north of the earlier track followed by the preceding low pressure. Heavy to very heavy rains are likely between 14th and 17thJuly, shifting across North Odisha, West Bengal, North Chhattisgarh and East and Central Madhya Pradesh. This system may not impact Maharashtra and Gujarat, unlike the predecessors.
It is little early to preempt further beyond these timelines. However, there are indications of monsoon trough shifting northward over the Indo Gangetic plains in the proximity of foothills. In such a scenario, rains may shift gear to lash parts of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand. Monsoon systems will be kept under observation for any further prognostication.
