Contrasting conditions are prevailing over the Northern and Southern parts of the country. The monsoon line is beyond the Konkan coast on the western side and short of Bhubaneswar-Kolkata on the eastern flank. The eastern arm is stuck over Sikkim, since the time of initial onset on 30th May 2024. Before time arrival over Mumbai and overshooting timeline for Kolkata, speaks about the varied pace of monsoon, this season.
No major monsoon system has formed over the Indian seas, so far. Earlier, cyclone Remal triggered early and simultaneous onset of monsoon over the entire Northeast India on 30th May. That surge has gone silent, thereafter. On the western flank, a small-scale vortex over Konkan and Goa pulled the monsoon stream, a little earlier than usual. Unlike equitable monsoon spread, the distribution of rainfall is skewed along the West Coast. In the first 11 days of the season, the state of Kerala is deficient, Coastal Karnataka is in excess, and Konkan & Goa is just normal. Monsoon is yet to reach deep into Gujarat, but the sub-division is in large deficit, as of today. The encouraging aspect is that all the three landlocked sub-divisions of Maharashtra have observed decent rains. These pockets, otherwise are largely rainfed and remain at the mercy of weather gods.
Courtesy, decent rains along the Western Ghats and Northeast India, seasonal rainfall figures are satisfactory. The country has received 39.6mm rainfall against the normal of 40.1mm, between 01st and 11th June 2024. Despite decent rains and a bout of floods, as well, East and Northeast India is deficit by huge 31%, till date. Outside the Assam Valley, the states of West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand are reeling with a large deficit of about 60% rainfall. The advance of the monsoon is still awaited over these parts.
The features which triggered monsoon rainfall over the South Peninsula and Maharashtra have eroded now. The cyclonic circulation over Marathwada and Telangana is subsumed. The offshore activity along the West Coast is also dwindling. The formation of the maiden monsoon system over the Bay of Bengal remains a distant dream. Therefore, with the dilution of monsoon triggers, the weather activity is likely to take a dip, over the next 4-5 days.
The rainfall is normal, on a daily basis, and is minimal in the first 10 days of June, about 4mm a day. Country rainfall figure rise to about 6 mm around the middle of the month and shoot up to nearly 8 mm at the fag end of June. It means, to catch up with the normal, the spread and intensity of rainfall need to be commensurate with the seasonal spike. Delay in the formation of a monsoon system, low or depression, over the Bay of Bengal may become jittery for the overall health of the monsoon in the onset month of June.
There is a silver lining and hope to evert any misgiving on account of monsoon debacle, early in the season. An in-situ cyclonic circulation is likely to come up over Bihar and Jharkhand, early next week. The feature seems reassuring to carry the monsoon flag, rather deep along the Indo-Gangetic plains. The advance of monsoon may not be as forceful, as desired. However, the timelines of monsoons to reach over northern plains may become promising, without inordinate delay.
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