The deep depression over Jharkhand and North Chhattisgarh weakened to a depression. It is likely to move west-northwest and be positioned over Madhya Pradesh. It may also weaken to a well-marked low-pressure area over Northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Southwest Uttar Pradesh. The weather system may not move any further and is likely to get filled up over land and merge with the seasonal monsoon trough, over the next 3-4 days.
The depression is likely to have intense weather activity on the right side and front quadrant of the system. Normally, the monsoon depressions have severe weather in the southwest quadrant. This also means that the depression will not travel very far and will have a proclivity to take a recurve towards Northwest Madhya Pradesh and Southwest Uttar Pradesh. The previous system also had recurved from a similar position and moved towards West Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. It is quite normal that, the successive systems do not overshoot the previous track and indicate soft withdrawal of the monsoon from the region, shortly.
The depression and its weakened version of low-pressure area will inflict heavy weather activity over Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh over the next 2 days. The peripherals of the system will stretch the activity to Delhi and parts of Haryana, as well.
The locations at risk will be the followings :
Madhya Pradesh: Satna, Chattarpur, Panna, Tikamgarh, Niwari, Datia, Bhind, Morena and parts of Bundelkhand.
Uttar Pradesh: Varanasi, Ayodhya, Prayagraj, Kanpur, Lucknow, Jhansi, Lalitpur, Mahoba, Chitrakoot, Banda, Hamirpur Etawah and border areas of Delhi and Northwest Madhya Pradesh.
Fairly widespread rain and thundershowers are expected over the next two days. Scattered places will have stormy conditions with severe weather resulting inundation and localized flooding. Connectivity will get impacted. The activity will become less on the third day and improve significantly, thereafter.