Yesterday’s low-pressure area over the East-Central Bay of Bengal (BoB) strengthened to a depression over the same area. The system is centred around 700km southeast of Paradip (Odisha). The depression is over favourable environmental conditions in the deep sea, with fairly high heat potential ( > 100kj/sq cm). It is expected to move west-northwest and intensify in to a cyclonic storm, latest by early morning tomorrow. The storm will come over northwest BoB and pick up strength to become a severe cyclonic storm, a day later.
Due to limited sea travel, the maiden cyclonic storm of the monsoon season may not strengthen any further, till landfall. It is likely to head for the Odisha-West Bengal coast and make landfall sometime in the early hours of 25th October. The likely cone of strike extends from Puri (Odisha) to Diamond Harbour (West Bengal), as of now. The exact place of landfall will possibly become clear within the next 24 hours. However, the coastline of North Odisha and the entire West Bengal remains at risk of inclement weather conditions.
While, the storm is still about 72 hrs away in the sea and this notice needs to be optimally utilized for preparations, to meet any eventuality. The storms are quite notorious for their timelines and tracks. Even the weather intensity in the peripheral regions is not uniformly distributed. The sea condition will be very rough to start with, today itself. The outer cloud bands of the system and the outer ring of strong winds will start affecting the coastal parts of Odisha and West Bengal from tomorrow onwards. The coastal and inland stations like Baripada, Balasore, Jagatsinghpur, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapara, Paradip, Puri, Digha, Contai, Nandigram, Diamond Harbour and 24 South Pargana will be at risk of extremely intense and hazardous weather conditions. The storm may strike with a force of over 100kmh wind speed, gusting to 120kmh. The combination of pouring rains and the strong howling wind is deadly, bringing down the trees, poles, hutments, and weak structures and blowing away the rooftops. Utmost caution need to be exercised, to minimize loss of life and assets. Moving to safe shelters continues to be a viable and sensible option.
Image Courtesy: CIMSS
