The first post-monsoon weather system of this season started with a low-pressure area over the Southeast Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region, last week. Earlier, it showed some signs of intensification to a possible storm, the first one of the season. However, that scenario is now ruled out. The depression still lies in the Central Arabian Sea, with a likely track towards Oman and Yemen. However, it is no longer a suspect for any development into a tropical storm. Rather, the weather system may weaken, short of the coastline of Oman-Yemen.
The presence of this weather system had driven the wind pattern along the Konkan-Goa Coast. Consequently, it delayed the withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from Mumbai. Rains are still continuing. Now, it is expected to retreat in the next 2-3 days. The coastline will once again come under attack from fresh rains. This time, it will be under the influence of a fresh weather system evolving over the Bay of Bengal and moving across the South Peninsula, to reemerge in the Arabian Sea. The wet spell will go against the ushering in of Northeast Monsoon likely to be announced by mid-week.
Once, the weather system enters the Arabian Sea, like its predecessor, the rains will revive along Konkan & Goa. However, unlike the previous system, this one will start gaining strength. It will track westward across the Central Arabian Sea and may possibly become a cyclone, yet again. The storm will head for Oman -Yemen and strike the coastline around mid-week next, between the 22nd & 24th of October. It is likely to spare the Indian region, in toto and impact coastal parts of Iran and Pakistan, as well.
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