Yesterday’s low-pressure area over the Arabian Sea has become well-marked. The cyclonic circulation is extending up to, well beyond the middle levels of the atmosphere. The low pressure is expected to move northwest and strengthen into a depression in about the next 36 hours. This will be the maiden post-monsoon system of the season in the Indian Seas. The weather system is unlikely to intensify further and keep moving westward, distancing itself from the West Coast.
Under the influence of this well-marked low pressure, the wind stream is getting directed toward its centre and has become easterly, all along the Konkan-Goa coast. Mumbai received moderate showers in the past 24 hours and so are the other parts of Konkan, Goa and Coastal Karnataka. The system is over the deep sea, far from the coastline and also not very strong to inflict any inclement weather conditions. As it moves further away, the intensity and spread of the weather activity will reduce.
Moderate rain and thundershowers are likely over Konkan and Goa, including Mumbai in the next 24 hours. The peripherals of the system will reach and affect activity, all along the West Coast and also cover parts of South & Central Gujarat and Saurashtra. However, no hazardous weather is expected anywhere over the coastline and interiors, as well.
Depression will head further westward and is likely to reach borderline areas of Oman and Yemen. Since, the environmental conditions do not strongly favour any intensification and rather, it may weaken before reaching closer to the coast of Oman-Yemen, sometime around the 15th to 16th of October. No stormy conditions are expected and possibly the weather system will fizzle out soon after crossing the coast.