Updated on December 3, 2019 7:30 PM: Cyclone forms in East-Central Arabian Sea, 600 km away from Mumbai
Much earlier than expected, the depression in east-central Arabian Sea, off Karnataka coast has intensified rapidly. According to Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), the system can be now seen as a cyclonic storm, named as TC 07A. However, state-run meteorological department is yet to declare the same. JTWC does not have the prerogative to name a cyclonic storm in Indian Ocean.
The cyclone is centered around Latitude 13.4°N and Longitude 70.2°E, around 650 km south-southwest of Mumbai. The system is likely to retain the strength of a tropical cyclone for the next 48 hours on account of warm sea surface temperatures to the tune of 29°C to 30°C. However, the said cyclone in north-northwest direction, drifting away from the coastline. Thus, the weather over West Coast would not be directly impacted due to the storm, but moderate showers along South Konkan & Goa region cannot be ruled out during the next few hours.
As reiterated before, as the system moves further north-northwest, it would encounter with cold sea surface temperatures. As a result, it is most likely to weaken thereafter in the open waters itself.
Updated on December 3, 2019 7:30 PM: Depression likely in Arabian Sea, watch for 9th cyclone issued
The Low Pressure Area over Arabian Sea has intensified into a well-marked Low Pressure Area and now lies over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining east-central Arabian Sea, off Karnataka coast. The cloud configuration and atmospheric conditions suggest that the system has already induced a depression. In fact, its marked features are almost akin to that of deep depression.
The likely depression is travelling in favorable weather conditions of warm sea surface temperatures to the tune of 30 degree Celsius and low vertical wind shear. At present, Arabian Sea is an active basin, with four active weather systems brewing in the same, out of which two are cyclonic storms.
Looking at the weather conditions, we have issued a watch for cyclonic storm as weathermen are of the view that the system has all the potential to further intensify during the next 24 hours. Well if this forms into a cyclonic storm, it would be 9th storm of the season and would be named as Cyclone 'Amphan'. However, it is a wait and watch situation as of now.
According to weathermen, the system would continue to move in north-northwest direction, drifting away from the coast but still continues to be in close proximity of the mainland. Under the influence of this system, moderate rains are likely over Coastal Karnataka, Goa and Konkan. According to weathermen, most of the activity would be confined to the sea but peripherals of the system are reaching to the coastline giving moderate rains during the next 24 hours.
Also as the weather systems gain strength, the wind pattern would be concentrating around the same. This would also lead to reduction in the rainfall activities.
Thereafter, the system would be encountering will cooler water, resulting in the weakening of the system. Weathermen predict that like rapid intensification of the system, its weakening would also be hush-hush.
Image Credit: NDTV
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