Cyclone Nilofar update

November 1, 2014 11:55 AM | Skymet Weather Team

District helpline emergency helpline number for Gujarat: 1077

November 1, 11:55 am(IST): Even after a rapid weakening, the cyclonic system Nilofar continues to persist and has given light rain over coastal Saurahstr and Kutch region in last 24 hours. The remnants of the system can still be seen in the sea but that will not affect the rain and wind pattern over coastal Saurashtra and Kutch region as it will continue to witness normal wind speed of 30-40 kmph.

October 31, 22:00 pm (IST): Cyclone Nilofar has caused rainfall in some parts of Gujarat. The storm has been averted to the effect that there are only 20 to 30 km/h of wind speeds.

 

October 31, 10:00 am (IST): Cyclone Nilofar has weakened into a low pressure area over north east of Arabian Sea itself. No intense weather activity in terms of rain and winds are expected near the coastal areas. Only scattered light rain over coastal part of Saurashtra and Kutch.

 

Also read: Cyclone Nilofar: In Images

October 30, 17:15 (IST): Intermittent spells of rain and thundershowers at many places are likely over Amreli, Banaskantha, Deesa, Dwarka, Jamnagar, Junagadh, Kutch, Patan, Porbandar, Rajkot and Sabarkantha districts of Gujarat with strong average winds of 40 kmph gusting at 60 kmph from 31st October till 01st November 2014.

October 30, 14:45 (IST): Cyclone Nilofar has weakened into a cyclonic storm, and is likely to make landfall at Naliya coast as a low pressure area on October 31. With this, the Gujarat coast escapes the threat of cyclone. However some areas could still observe good amounts of rain. Currently, the cyclone Nilofar is located at 20.4º North and 64º East, and is about 600 km west southwest of Naliya coast (Kutch, Gujarat) and 640 km south southwest of Karachi with wind speed of 80 kmph gusting at 100 kmph.

Also read: Cyclone Nilofar fizzling out over Arabian Sea

 

October 30, 10:00 am (IST): Cyclone Nilofar is likely to weaken into a cyclonic storm and is expected to weaken further into a depression in next 24 hours. Currently, the cyclone Nilofar is located at 19.5º North and 63.6º East, and is about 680 km southwest of Naliya coast (Kutch, Gujarat) and 700 km south southwest of Karachi with wind speed of 85 kmph gusting at 100 kmph.

October 29, 22:50 (IST): Cyclone Nilofar continues to weaken rapidly, now equivalent to CAT-1 hurricane with wind speeds of about 140 km/h. Presently located at 19.4º North and 62.5º East, it is about 740 kms southwest of Naliya, Gujarat. It is likely to downgrade from a 'very severe cyclonic storm' to a 'severe cyclonic storm' soon and further to a 'cyclonic Storm' within the next 24 hours. It is likely to cross Kutch coast near Naliya on 31st night, with associated winds of about 60 to 80 km/h during landfall.

October 29, 16:30 (IST): Very severe cyclonic storm Nilofar is showing signs of weakening considerably. At present, the cyclone is 800 km away from Naliya coast in Kutch. As the system enters cold water, it will weaken further due to which the possible landfall on October 31st evening will be a feeble storm. At the time of landfall, the wind speed will be close to 60 kmph gusting at 80 kmph.

October 29, 13:30 (IST): Industrial installations worth over Rs. 70,000 crore, country’s two biggest ports - Mundra and Kandla,and people from 123 villages on the border district of Kutch are at risk. The severe cyclonic storm Nilofar threatens to hit the coast at Naliya, by Saturday.

In order to safeguard these units, the local industries have been asked to suspend all activity 12 hours prior to the arrival of Nilofar. The local district administration has also planned to evacuate over 30,000 people from 123 villages in the district.

October 29, 10:00 am (IST): Cyclone Nilofar is now moving north-eastwards at a speed of 10 kmph. At present, it is about 900 km far from southwest Naliya and is centered at 18.3°N and 62°E.   It has covered a distance of 30 km in last three hours and is likely to gather speed now onwards. Maximum sustained winds are 160 kmph gusting upto 180 kmph.

October 29, 09:00 am (IST): Authorities in the coastal districts of the Saurashtra and Kutch regions of Gujarat are taking steps to cope with cyclone Nilofar over westcentral Arabia Sea that is expected to weaken and cross the coast near Naliya by the forenoon of November 1.

October 28, 23:50 (IST): Now Cyclone Nilofar lies at about 1000 kms of distance from Naliya, Gujarat. It had been moving north-northwestwards earlier but it has now clearly been observed to have progressed northwards a bit. This indicates that it is more than likely to recurve northeastwards shortly. Still moving slowly, Cyclone Nilofar lies at 17.2º North and 61.8º East.


October 28, 14:30 (IST): At present, it is moving in north-northwestward direction and its current position is 1,110 km southwest of Nalia at latitude 15.9 N and Longitude 61.6 E.

October 28, 10:15 (IST): Cyclone Nilofar is sustaining the strength of a 'very severe cyclonic storm' but has not shown signs of intensification. It is moving very slowly and is in the process of recurving in a northeast direction. At the moment it is stationed at 15.6°N and 61.8°E in the Arabian Sea, at a distance of 1120 km southwest of Nalia in Kutch.

October 27, 22:45 (IST): Cyclone Nilofar is sustaining the strength of a 'very severe cyclonic storm' but shows no signs of intensifying. It is moving very slowly and is in the process of recurving towards the northeast direction.

October 27, 15:05 (IST): Cyclone Nilofar has now intensified into a 'very severe cyclonic storm' with wind speeds of about 120 km/h (55 knots) gusting at 150 km/h (70 knots). At the moment it is stationed at 14.9°N and 62.4°E in the Arabian Sea, at a distance of 1170 km southwest of Nalia in Kutch. The system has been moving at a very slow speed of 5 kmph, tracking northward. This indicates that it is going to recurve and move northeastward.

 

October 27, 10:25 am (IST): Cyclone Nilofar has now intensified into a 'severe cyclonic storm' with winds speeds of about 100 km/h (55 knots) and gusting winds at 120 km/h (70 knots). At the moment it is at a distance of 1180 km southwest of Nalia in Kutch. The movement path of Cyclone Nilofar has not changed yet, however it is almost stationary above the waters as of now. This marks a clear indication that the cyclone is bound to change its path within 24 hours.

October 26, 17:30 (IST): The deep depression in the Arabian Sea has now turned in to a cyclonic storm and has been named 'Cyclone Nilofar' by the Pakistan Meteorological Department.

At the moment, Cyclone Nilofar is at a distance if 1270 km west-southwest from Mumbai and 910 km from Salalah in Oman. It is currently moving towards the northwest of the Arabian Sea, which is where Oman lies, but we are expecting it to change direction and move in the northeast direction in another 48 hours. It already shows signs of developing into a severe cyclonic storm, however we will have more clarity in the next 24 hours.

At this point it seems that the cyclone will make landfall anywhere between Kandla Port in Gujarat and Karachi in about 72 hours. Once Cyclone Nilofar makes landfall, it is expected to move through Rajasthan and affect most of Northwest India until the 1st or 2nd of November.

Though the system will begin to dissipate as soon as it makes landfall, it will interact with the prevailing Western Disturbance cause heavy rainfall and clouding in areas of Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, West Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Jammu & Kashmir. The Meteorology Division at Skymet will continue to closely observe this evolving system and keep this page updated.

October 26, 12:30 pm (IST): The depression system in Arabian Sea has now turned into a deep depression. According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the system will further intensify into a cyclonic storm in next 24 hours.

Earlier on Saturday, the low pressure system had intensified into a depression.

At present, the system is over west central and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea and is approximately 1400 km southwest of Mumbai.

Due to this system, entire Maharashtra has been witnessing light to moderate rainfall since Saturday. The maximum temperatures have also dropped significantly around 30°C. As per Skymet Meteorology Division in India, similar weather conditions will prevail on Sunday as well, before it returns to normal.

The system has also brought showers over several places of south Gujarat, Karnataka and Kerala and clouds over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Odisha.

Further, the system is likely to move in west northwest direction and reach southern parts of Oman. After reaching Oman coast, the system may re-curve in northerly to northwesterly direction due to the upper level diversion. Post this, it will reach somewhere between Karachi, Pakistan and Kandla coast in Gujarat by October 29.

This system then might bring rainfall over most parts of Gujarat, western parts of Rajasthan, south Punjab and even south Haryana by October 30.

Earlier this month on October 12, a severe cyclonic storm Hudhud had battered the east coast of India. It had made landfall in Visakhapatnam with maximum sustained winds of upto 190 kmph. Hudhud had triggered massive rainfall in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.

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