As expected, the well-marked low-pressure area over southern parts of Central Bay of Bengal (BoB) intensified into a depression. This is the maiden depression of this year and also untimely over the Indian waters.
The Depression is centred around 6.0°N and 83.5°E, about 400km southeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka) and 850km south-southeast of Chennai. It is likely to move northwestward and come closer to the northeast coast of Sri Lanka.
The Depression is expected to intensify further to a deep depression in the next 24 hours over southwest Bay. The sea surface temperature is just above the threshold required for further intensification, beyond even deep depression.
Heat potential is just adequate and wind shear is also manageable for its further strengthening. Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is not strongly favourable, as it lies in the inner ring with limited amplitude, albeit not opposing any intensification.
Numerical models are in consonance of its further intensification to a deep depression. The clarity on its further strengthening will come in the subsequent 12-18 hours. However, based on the environmental conditions, its further increase in magnitude and severity can not be ruled out.
Surely, the formation of a cyclonic storm in the southwest Bay, at this point in time is climatologically an outlier. Depression is not likely to develop into a storm in the next 24hr, but the possibility of having one thereafter, can not be ignored.
The Weather system is heading northwest towards the North Tamil Nadu coast. Peripheral of the system will reach the coastline in the next 24hr to spread some clouds. Subsequent 48 hr will bring the system further closer and the coastline between Cuddalore and Chennai, across Karaikal and Puducherry, will fall in its strike range. Heavy rain and thundershowers accompanied by squally winds and lightning strike is expected, along with and off the coast.
Ambiguity remains on its exact track at this stage and needs to be kept under observation for the next 24hr. Storms at this point in time are known to be notorious for defying the timelines, track and intensity.
Prevailing steering winds influenced by the tropical ridge is not favouring for the system to make any deep penetration over land. However, the weather system will come precariously close to cause stormy weather conditions over North Coastal Tamil Nadu and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh.