Low pressure area in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) has intensified into a depression. The depression is lying now over the deep waters of Central BoB and is positioned around 800 km south of Patuakhali (Khepupara- Barisal, Bangladesh). It is moving northeast under favourable environmental conditions and likely to intensify into deep depression in the evening. Further intensification is expected and the first tropical storm of the pre-monsoon season is likely to form over Bay of Bengal.
Depression is well manifested as formative cloud bands, wrapped tightly around the center. Adequate heat potential and light wind shear will promote its strength and sharpen its features, as well. The upper winds are likely to steer the depression to northeast for the next about 12 hours and navigate more to the north, later. Rapid intensification is expected and may become a cyclonic storm during wee hours, tomorrow.
The first storm of the season will be named ‘REMAL’ as suggested by the member country Oman. Courtesy of sufficient sea travel, there is broad consensus amongst the model that Remal will become a severe cyclonic storm and keep moving north towards the coastline of Bangladesh. There is no total agreement within the numerical models about its track, timeline and landfall point, at this juncture. As of now, the cyclone may keep moving north to head for the ‘delta’ area of Bangladesh, squeezed between the Khulna and Barisal divisions. It is quite likely to strike near Patuakhali ( old name Khepupara- 21.59°N and 90.13°E) during evening/night hours on 26th May 2024.
The cyclone is likely to keep a safe distance from Coastal Odisha, which may only experience moderately strong winds and scattered light to moderate rainfall. The landfall point will not be very far from the Sunderban area of West Bengal. But, it will still keep an arms distance from South 24 Pargana. Northeast India will be heading for inclement weather conditions, little later after system moves inland. States of Meghalaya and Tripura will have a bigger risk of adverse weather conditions.
