Under the influence of persisting cyclonic circulation, an invest area formed over the northeast Bay of Bengal (BoB), today morning. It has rapidly intensified into a depression over the same area. Depression is supported by well-defined low-level cyclonic circulation. The convection associated with the system is not fully organized. Still, a mass of clouds is seen over north and northeast BoB and coastal parts of Bangladesh and Myanmar. Roughly, the weather system is centred around 19.8°N and 91.5°E, about 270 km south of the port city of Chittagong, Bangladesh.
Depression is marked in a marginally favourable environment. The sea surface is fairly warm, 30°C over the deep sea and about 29°C along and off the coast of Bangladesh and Myanmar. Vertical wind shear is moderate to high around the area of interest. Conditions are not favourable for sustained intensification. Still, the weather system may become more marked in the next 12-24 hours. Eventually, due to the proximity of land, dry air entrainment and wind shear will take its toll. The system may steadily weaken as it moves towards the coastal parts of Bangladesh and Myanmar. It may get diffused after 36 hours while in the vicinity of the coastline.
Heavy rains are likely over coastal parts of Bangladesh and the Arakan Coast, Myanmar. Coastal parts of Gangetic West Bengal may also get scattered moderate showers along with gusty winds. The system is likely to track northeast. Limited sea travel is reducing the chance of intensification to result in any high-impact weather event.
