Minimum temperatures in the month of November have remained well above the normal on large number of days. The first half of the month was abnormally warm and the minimum temperature stayed mostly above 16°C. The mercury dipped on and after 19th Nov to occasionally reach below the normal. There have been large variations in the morning temperature during the last one week. From 16.2°C on 18th Nov, the minimum temperature plunged to 10.2°C on 21st Nov, a steep fall of about 6°C. However, the mercury climbed again over the weekend and the base station at Safdarjung has recorded a low of 14°C, today, above the normal by about 3°C.
Month of November has a mean minimum of about 13°C. Between 01st Nov and 25th Nov, the average minimum stands at 16.7°C, nearly 4°C above the normal. In the remaining days of the month, marginal drop in temperature is likely and the minimum may hover around 11°-12°C. The mean temperature is unlikely to drop below 15°C and therefore, Delhi is likely to stay above normal by about 2°C. Earlier, October also finished on a similar note and was the warmest on record, since 1950. November may close a shade better than October, but still figure among the warmest years, on record.
October and November have remained completely dry, so far. There is no rainfall likely during rest of the days of this month. A weak western disturbance will approach the northern mountains on 29th Nov and travel across the region slowly, for the subsequent 4-5 days. However, the weather activity will remain confined to the hills and more so the higher and mid reaches. The lower hills like Srinagar, Banihal, Qazi Gund and Avantipora may have brief spell of very light rainfall on 30th Nov. The plains of North India, including Delhi, will be spared of any weather activity. Yes, the minimum temperatures may rise on 29th& 30th Nov by 1°-2°C. There is no sharp drop likely for Delhi during this month. Typical winter chill will continue to wait in the wings.