Will the Dharna-driven Aam Aadmi Party be able to pull off another remarkable victory in the upcoming Delhi assembly elections? Or will the chilly weather and the party's dented image obstruct the comeback of the 'Muffler Man'? There's no one way of answering these questions, but one can freely opine that when it comes to Delhi, a 'cold shoulder' awaits India's most uncommon 'common man'.
The last time Arvind Kejriwal rounded up his followers for a Dharna, the equations were highly unconvincing. Both the mannerism and direction of the Dharna failed to procure reasonable support and sympathy for the then Chief Minister of Delhi. The Dharna, held last year in January, disrupted the movement of Delhi Metro in most parts of the city causing inconvenience to the passengers. Moreover, growing allegations of anarchism combined with Kejriwal's constant disregard for the suggestions of the Home Ministry to relocate, further enfeebled the protest gathering. To add to this, the biting cold of Delhi (with maximums averaging 19°C for the month of January 2014, which is 2 to 3°C below the normal average) and lack of proper arrangements at the protest site allowed most former supporters to skip the Dharna.
Let's rewind the clocks and shift our attention to the beginning of a socio-political uprising which rocked the Indian democracy. The year 2011 gave birth to this uprising which was debated and contemplated in all sects. Burdened under the weight of numerous corruption scandals, deceitful political dialogues, and unending blame games, the people of Delhi recognized a potently 'common man' as their new leader; as a new ray of hope. Arvind Kejriwal's rise as a charismatic leader was mainly assisted by the viral anti-corruption movement headed by Anna Hazare. While the movement was dragged for almost a year, it did die a premature death in the end. Kejriwal, however, continued with his new-found agenda and took the next giant step of formulating a political party. Aam Aadmi Party was born and the age of Dharnas received fresh impetus.
Arvind Kejriwal was originally a part of the famous Team Anna which undertook several Dharnas throughout its short lifespan. A band of misfits namely: Anna Hazare, Kiran Bedi, Baba Ramdev, and others, ended their partnership due to clash of ideologies. But Kejriwal stole the spotlight and became the new face of a new effort. Even after the controversial split of Team Anna, Dharnas were adopted as a means of protest by the newly formed Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The nucleus of these nation-wide protest gatherings was the Jantar Mantar in Delhi. The driving force were words of wisdom and aggression emanating out of the AAP camp. The season was also ripe for such 'revolutionary' outings. The heat of the moment overpowered the heat of the season and new-born 'rebels' gathered from all across the country. From New Delhi to Mumbai, the awakening took hold of both the rich and the poor; the educated and the uneducated; the wise and the foolish; and the hardcore nationalists as well as the pretentious nationalists. The months of March, April, and May, made the opposition sweat while Arvind Kejriwal rose to fame in a subtle and somewhat cool manner. Kejriwal's AAP came to power and the 'common man' completed a seemingly successful transition to become the Chief Minister of Delhi. To sum it up, it all worked out pretty well, be it politically or weather-wise.
But the seasons have now changed and battleground Delhi is gearing up for what could prove to be the most important elections of this decade. While poll promises were discussed at length during Kejriwal's 49-day government, a miscalculated resignation ahead of the Lok Sabha elections affected the goodwill of the party. Kejriwal's hope of profiting from the biggest sacrifice of his life remained unfulfilled. The move heavily backfired and now the focus rests on the upcoming assembly elections. These elections may as well decide the future of Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party. Now that the Indian National Congress has lost almost everything (from power to presence) in Delhi, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and Aam Aadmi Party will lock horns in a riveting contest of the efficacious 'Modi Wave' against AAP's issue-based politics. While BJP will ride on massive rallies and the seasoned political commentary of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it will be interesting to note if AAP will be able to pull off productive Dharnas in this cold and foggy weather. Will the crowds brave the winter chill and turn out in huge numbers to support the Muffler Man? Or will the cold conditions keep loyalists wrapped in blankets wearing an AAP topi watching the televised version of the battle?
January will continue to maintain uncomfortably low temperatures. Fog will persist in the city and will affect the ambitious Dharnas and rallies being organized in lieu of the fast approaching assembly elections. Delhi assembly elections will be held on February 7. This gives AAP a narrow time window of nearly a month. With the city experiencing some of its coldest days in the first half of January, how hot or cold will the Dharna momentum get?
(Also Read: Palam In Delhi Witnesses Coldest Day Of The Season)
The effectiveness of AAP's Dharna strategy remains questionable. Will the somewhat impoverished Dharnas be able to put 'AK-49' in control of Delhi again? Or will the administrative prowess of Narendra Modi gift Delhi its first BJP leadership in more than two decades? Dear Delhiites, pledge your allegiance and pull out your winter wear, as this particular political battle will surely be fought with a cold-cold heart.
