Delhi has been having fleeting and sporadic monsoon showers, so far, in the month of July. No rainfall was recorded yesterday, at any of the observatories. Light to moderate showers lashed most parts of the capital city, today morning. Since, the weather activity commenced after 8.30 a.m, these showers will be counted against 16thJuly. In the first fortnight of July, the base observatory Safdarjung has recorded a total of 73.2 mm rainfall, far below the normal during this period.
July and August are the rainiest months for Delhi with normal of 209.7mm and 233.1mm rainfall respectively. In the first half of the month, it remains well short of the half way mark. Rains are likely to remain light for the next few days and pick up by 21-22 July 2024. Decent showers are expected around that time but the model accuracy goes low during monsoon after about four days. Therefore, the forecast is subject to revision, in the next 72 hours.
Currently, the monsoon trough is positioned south of the city. The farther the trough, lesser is the weather activity. Next two days, showers will be of brief duration. Weather conditions will be dominated by partly cloudy sky, mild breeze, temperature in mid-30’s and sultry conditions in the afternoon hours. Monsoon trough will come closer to the city, with a circulation embedded on 17th and 18thJuly. Intensity and spread of the showers could be moderate and the layered clouds may thicken. Subsequent two days, 19th and 20thJuly will revert back to previous pattern.
There is likelihood of a monsoon system forming over Bay of Bengal around 18th-19thJuly. The system is likely to move inland on around 20thJuly. This will reposition the monsoon trough and will also generate few bubbles of cyclonic circulations along its stretch. Delhi and adjoining parts will also have a similar situation. Accordingly, rainfall activity is expected to pick up again on 21stJuly and at the start of next week. Being a week long forecast, it will be subject to revision by mid-week.