October 2024 was the hottest month for the capital city of the last 73 years. The warm trail has not ended yet and in continuation, November also makes a warm start. As per the normals, the month begins with a low of 15 degrees and closes at about 10 degrees Celsius. The first week of the month is on track to defy these norms and may even extend to the next week, as well.
The first five days of November have recorded a minimum temperature of about 17 degrees or above. The average for the first pentad works out to be 17.2 degrees, as against the desired mark of 15 degrees. Even, a slight nip in the air, which was visible for a couple of days earlier, has faded away. Both day and night temperatures have scored above the normal mark by 2-3 degrees. The pattern is expected to persist, beyond the stipulated dates.
All the triggers leading to seasonal chill in the capital are missing so far. And therefore, the typical coolness, very familiar around this time of the month, is giving amiss. The seasonal anticyclone over Rajasthan responsible for pushing the cold air has remained either weak or displaced and distorted. Actually, this feature works in tandem with the western disturbance, moving across the mountains of North India.
Despite, little early snowfall in the higher reaches of Kashmir, in October, the process has nearly stalled, thereafter. Unless there is an adequate layer of snow over the higher mountains, even the dry northwesterlies blowing down the slopes of mountains over the plains will remain devoid of classic chill.
There is a feeble western disturbance arriving between 10th and 12th November over Jammu & Kashmir. However, this will be relatively weak and may not have the adequate punch to bring shivers to the plains. Rather, with its approach, any further fall in the mercury will get arrested. The morning temperature in Delhi will continue to hover around 16-18 degrees Celsius for the next about ten days. Weather conditions will remain misty and hazy in the morning, without any rainfall over Delhi and suburbs.