Monsoon arrived over Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16, three days prior to the onset date. Since then the advancement has been slow. By May 21 the Southwest Monsoon advanced over Bay of Bengal touching southern parts of Sri Lanka. But here on, the Monsoon stagnated for a week.
The Arabian Sea branch of the Southwest Monsoon made very slow advancement and is yet to reach the extreme southern tip (Kerala) of India. Cloud build up on either side of the sea was looking promising till a few days back for the timely onset over Kerala. However, it slowed down as the cloud pattern became a little diffused and unorganized.
But pre-Monsoon rain is still being observed in the state. In the last 24 hours Karnataka has observed good rainfall. Kerala too experienced good rain on May 28 with Pampakuda in the Ernakulam district recording 55 mm of rain. Udayanampuram in Kottayam district received 37 mm of rain, while Mundathicode in Thrissur observed 30 mm of rainfall.
On May 29, the rainfall activity in Kerala became minimal with isolated places receiving very light rain. However, in the last 24 hours some rainfall has been observed in the state but the weather activity has been patchy in nature, which is not the characteristic of Monsoon.
For instance, Aluva in Ernakulam received 63 mm of rain in last 24 hours from 8.30 am on Friday. Kozha in Kottayam received 58 mm, while Chalakudy in Thrissur recorded 8.2 mm of rain.
Meanwhile, the conditions do not look favourable for widespread rain in the state. The winds off the Kerala coast in the Arabian Sea continue to be northwesterly instead of southwesterly. An anticyclone in the southeast and east central Arabian Sea is driving this pattern.
The anticyclone has to become insignificant for the winds to change their direction. In absence of any significant system the cloud cover is also thin. So the Outgoing Long Radiation (OLR) is on the higher side of the stipulated values.
Looking at the current scenario, rapid changes in the weather systems to fulfill the Monsoon criteria looks unlikely. Therefore, weathermen at Skymet forecast delayed onset of Monsoon in Kerala, around June 3. Even after the onset the Monsoon will continue to be weak for some days.
Image Credit: mystikalindia.com
