Withdrawal of the southwest monsoon commenced last week. The monsoon stream has already retreated from parts of Gujarat, in the neighbourhood of Mumbai. The next stop could possibly include Mumbai, but with a likely delay of another one week or more. Some parts of Mumbai experienced very light rain for a brief duration, and similar conditions are expected for the next 6-7 days or so.
The scheduled monsoon withdrawal from Mumbai is around the 6th of October. Monsoon retreat from various parts is not a consistent and steady process. Long pauses are quite common in the two adjacent areas. The whole process of withdrawal takes about one month to complete. The retreat of the monsoon stream is considered complete once the withdrawal line reaches 15°N over Peninsular India. This is also the time when there are precursors to the ingress of the northeast monsoon, which invariably arrives between the 20th and 25th of October.
North of Mumbai, the weather activity has nearly ceased over most parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan region. An anticyclonic flow is becoming dominant. Over Peninsular India, monsoon rains are not yet over and done. There is a cyclonic circulation over the Southeast and adjoining Central Arabian Sea. Another circulation is coming up on the other side of the coast, off Andhra Pradesh and the North Tamil Nadu region. The central parts of South India will also have some small bubbles of circulation and a feeble trough along the coast from Kerala to Konkan, across coastal Karnataka and Goa.
These conditions will result in an uptick in the weather activity over the South Peninsula in general and along the West Coast, in particular. The Konkan region will remain active for the next one week. Mumbai will be on the northern periphery of the activity. Light precipitation, joined by some moderate showers on a few occasions, is likely over the region, and this will delay the departure of the monsoon from Mumbai. Southwest monsoon is unlikely to vacate the financial capital for another one week or even longer.
Image Courtesy: DNA India
