Jammu and Kashmir in the Western Himalayas is currently in the normal rain category with a deficiency of 8% (+/-19 considered normal) while, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand are still rain deficient by 36% and 47%, respectively.
Although intermittent rain and thundershowers can be witnessed in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, they will be patchy in nature. Thus, we can say that fairly widespread rains are still awaited.
Currently, a Trough is extending from Punjab up to Nagaland across Uttar Pradesh. A Well-Mark Low-Pressure Area is also over the eastern parts of Uttar Pradesh. These two weather systems would shift North, toward the foothills of the Himalayas leading to an increase in rain over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Thus, in the next 24 hours, we expect heavy to very heavy rains to commence over Uttarakhand with moderate to heavy rains over Himachal Pradesh.
Good rains are expected to continue until July 15 in the region. Thereafter the Trough will start moving South and rains will start receding. The shifting of Trough over the foothills is referred to as Break Monsoon conditions. Rains will be more dominating over the southern districts like Shimla, Solan, Sirmaur, Bilaspur, Mandi, Kullu, Una, and Kangra in Himachal Pradesh. While rain will be heavier in Haridwar, Dehradun, Tehri, Almora, Nainital, and Champawat of Uttarakhand.
These rains will help in significantly pulling down the deficiency in Uttarakhand. Also, the repercussions of extreme weather conditions like landslides and mudslides cannot be ruled out.
Image Credit: India Someday
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