Depression in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) intensified into a deep depression. The weather system is marked over west-central BoB and is centred around 17.2°N and 87.1°E, about 300km east abeam Vishakhapatnam. It is likely to move north-northeast, keeping a relatively safe distance from the Indian coastline for any hazardous weather conditions.
Deep depression is placed in favourable environmental conditions for marginal strengthening over the next 24 hours. The cloud configuration displays robust outflow with a nearly circular cloud-dense overcast (CDO), around the centre of the depression. Sea surface temperature is fairly warm at 28°C-29°C around the centre of the system, dropping slightly towards the coastline. Vertical wind shear is moderate of the order of 15-20 Knots. However, frictional effects due to proximity of land and entrainment of dry air, are likely to suppress its rapid intensification. With the available heat potential, the chances of strengthening to a cyclonic storm can be placed as ‘medium’.
While the deep depression is getting steered northeastward, nearly parallel to the coastline of Odisha and West Bengal, the possibility of crossing the Indian landmass is ruled out. Rather, the coastline is expected to escape the extreme fury of the storm, as such. Deep depression may intensify to a weak storm, sometime late tonight or wee hours tomorrow. Winds in the inner ring are expected to pick up to 65-70kmh and gusting to about 80kmh. Weather systems having wind speed in the range of 62-88 kmh are classified as a cyclonic storm. Further, winds of the order of 89-117kmh take the storm to the next category of ‘severe cyclonic storm’. The storm is likely to be named as ‘Midhili’.
Under the influence of this system, north coastal Odisha and the shoreline of Gangetic West Bengal, including the Sunderban area can expect squally weather with moderate showers, becoming heavy at times. Kolkata, Howrah, Hooghly and Medinipur will remain at a relatively safe distance for any hazardous weather conditions. The storm is expected to cross Bangladesh's coast, late night tomorrow or early morning, between Mongla and Kalapara. Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Southeast Assam bear the risk of heavy rains between the 16th and 18th of November, with a peak on 17th of November.
