Depression in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) intensified to a deep depression over Northwest BoB. The deep depression has moved northwest with a speed of about 10km/h and has tracked parallel to the coastline. The weather system has reached east abeam Puri (Odisha), just 50 km from the coast. It is likely to cross the Odisha coast anytime soon in the evening hours. It will move further northwestward and travel to Chhattisgarh in the next 24 hours or so.
The satellite and wind centre of the deep depression do not match. It is a common thing for the monsoon depressions over BoB. The cloud cluster is far to the southwest of the synoptic centre. Apparently, the depression is centred around 20°N and 85°E, very close to the coastline. Heavy to very rains are expected over Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra in the next 24 hours.
The deep depression will weaken to a depression first and then to a well-marked low-pressure area over land. Moving further northwest, the monsoon system will reach Southwest Uttar Pradesh and North Madhya Pradesh on 11th September. Further movement will be very slow for the subsequent 48 hours. Model reliability, as such, goes low after the lead time of 4 days and a fresh look needs to be taken, after 48 hours.
Heavy to very heavy rains are likely over Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh on the 11th and 12th September. Intensity and spread of rainfall will increase, all along Indo-Gangetic plains. The peripheral of the system will reach Delhi and the state of Uttarakhand, during this period. Moderate rainfall is likely over these parts, as well, around this time.
