Well marked low pressure area over East-Central Arabian Sea intensified to a depression first and later in the night to a deep depression. The system was centred around 14deg N and 67.5degE, today noon hours, about 600km west-southwest of Goa and over 1100km away from Masirah Island. It is likely to weaken over the sea itself, rather rapidly.
Earlier, remnant of cyclone Mandous entered Arabian Sea as cyclonic circulation and strengthened to well marked low pressure, yesterday. Quickly, the weather system intensified to a depression by evening and further to a deep depression, in the late night. Based on numerical models, some of the weather agencies, including NOAA has declared the weather system as cyclonic storm '07A' over the central parts of the Arabian Sea.
It appears to be a borderline case, between deep depression and tropical storm, 'touch and go' situation. For cyclonic storm, the wind speed has to be 62kmph or more and the weather system did touch 65kmph briefly, while floating over frictionless surface of central Arabian Sea.
Environmental conditions are not favourable for sustenance of weather system. Flaring convection associated with the storm has decreased significantly. Structure of the system has become ragged over the area of low level cyclonic circulation. Vertical wind shear is on the rise and dry air entrainment is reducing the moisture content. Also, the sea surface temperature is dropping steeply, reducing the heat potential, markedly.
Under such conditions, the storm will weaken to a well marked low pressure area by late tonight. Further, it is likely to dissipate over the open waters of Central and West Central Arabian Sea in the next 36 hours.
The storm is drifting away from the Indian coastline and therefore becomes inconsequential for any noteworthy weather. Storm 07A will get dispersed over deep waters of Arabian Sea, rather far away from the shoreline of Southwest Asia and Eastern Africa. Coastline of Oman, Yemen and Somalia will remain safe from inclement weather conditions.
