Leaving Uttar Pradesh aside, the three eastern states of the country have remained the most deficit for the season, so far. Between 01st June and 31st Aug, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal have a shortfall of 38%, 27% and 29% respectively. The situation was still worse for Jharkhand and West Bengal till end of July.
Courtesy some good rains in August, both the states registered decent rainfall with surplus of 15% and 6% respectively. However, rainfall remained poor for Bihar in August too , and observed a discrepancy of 37%, nearly matching with the seasonal shortfall of 38% in the first half of season till 31st July. The upcoming spell may not substantially cover the deficit, but may arrest further fall in the averages of all the 3 states.
Monsoon trough has been running north of its normal position for the last few days. It is likely to hold this position for the next 4 days. A cyclonic circulation is emerging over the region on 5th September and the trough will shift southward thereon. The northern position of the Monsoon trough is considered favorable for monsoon showers, albeit with scattered distribution, over the 3 eastern states.
Moderate rain and thundershowers are expected over many parts of the states between 01st and 05th September. Southward shift of the trough will reduce the spread and intensity on the following days.
The Cyclonic circulation developing over the eastern parts will persist for short duration. It will have tendency to shift southward over parts of Odisha and coastal parts. Ultimately, this feature will get subsumed by another system likely to come up over Bay of Bengal towards end of next week. It is too early to predict further timelines, track and intensity of weather system and more authentic outlook will be possible after 3-4 days.
