The cyclonic circulation over the Southeast Bay of Bengal (BoB) has moved westward and now lies over southern parts of Central BoB. It is likely to move further westward and come closer to Sri Lanka and Coastal Tamil Nadu. The system will travel across the South Peninsula and go over the other side of the coast, by early next week. Northeast monsoon activity will pick up during this period and will remain effective till the end of next week.
Today and tomorrow, the peripherals of the system will start the weather activity, largely over coastal Tamil Nadu, including Chennai. Between 08th and 10th Nov, the wet spell will reach the interiors of Tamil Nadu and the state of Kerala. The spread and intensity will increase between 11th and 15th Nov and may even get extended beyond these timelines. South Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh will fall within the bounds of activity during this period. Even, Coastal Karnataka will have a brief stint of monsoon rains.
The weather disturbances like the easterly waves in the Northeast Monsoon season leave a trail of weather activity in the rear of the system. In this case, even a small circulation over the Gulf of Mannar and Sri Lanka is coming in support of circulation over BoB and pulling it closer to the landmass. After the system clears the South Peninsula region between 11th and 12th Nov, the northeasterly wind stream will be well set to continue the weather activity for another few days. Locations favourable for receiving monsoon rains will include Chennai, Puducherry, Karaikal, Cuddalore, Madurai, Trichy, Coimbatore, Thiruvananthapuram, Cochin, Kozhikode, Mangalore, Bengaluru, Mysuru, Hassan, Tirupati, Nellore and Ongole. Most other parts of the South Peninsula will also have light to moderate rainfall, for at least on couple of days during the next 10 days.