Cyclone Vayu continues to be a Very Severe Cyclone and continues to retain its intensity. The system is currently a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm and is near retain its intensity. The storm is currently 21 degrees N and 68.4 degrees E at 7.30 am, around 130 km South southwest Porbandar and 450 km Southeast of Karachi.
In the last 12 hours, the system has rather moved slowly with its speed being 10 kmph in the past six hours and moved in a west-northwest direction. Later on, the system will track westwards.
The weather system is likely to retain its intensity while it continues to drift away from the Saurashtra coast. What we would like to tell you that Cyclone Vayu is not done and over yet. The system will retain its strength for 24 hours and continue being a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm. Thereafter, it will weaken and become a Severe Cyclonic Storm. Unlike some news channels are claiming, the system is not heading towards Oman.
This particular system is a complex one and will have several changes in the coming time. The distance from Porbandar is not a very long. Extremely heavy rains have not been seen.
The last 24 hours have only seen moderate showers with only isolated pockets like Veraval seeing heavy rains of 52 mm.
In the next 24 hours, moderate rains will be seen for coastal areas right from Diu to Dwarka with isolated heavy rains.
After 24 hours, Vayu will be equivalent to a Cat 1 storm and will weaken after that into a Tropical storm, staying in North Northeast Arabian Sea. The reason for its restricted movement is the Anti cyclone in Arabian Sea, however, due to a westerly Trough forming after two days, the system will steer towards northeast and remain as a Cyclonic Storm.
After 48 hours, the system will be hovering around Northeast Arabian Sea likely to once again affect the Gujarat coast, this time, the coast of Kutch. The system will drift and the maximum distance it will have will be 250 km west southwest of Dwarka during its journey.
During that time, Vayu will remain in the area on a weakened note, probably into a depression.
For the next few days, the system will keep giving rains, not heavier ones but will give some moderate showers for sure. After 3 days, i.e. on June 17, it may give heavy showers, also on June 18 over the northern parts. Thus, cities of Jamnagar, Porbandar, Bhuj, Naliya, Dwarka, Okha, Mandvi will once again be under the radar.
While the damaging threat of the Cyclone is over for both Gujarat and Karachi coast, rough sea conditions, which may become nasty with some really strong winds will be seen over the coastal parts, and thus some kind of caution needs to be extended at least the shore.
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Please Note: Any information picked from here must be attributed to skymetweather.com