Tropical cyclone is likely to form over the Bay of Bengal (BoB ) around mid-week. A sea born disturbance over the South Andaman Sea, after ongoing intensification, will float over the Southwest BoB as cyclone 'Mandous' soon. The 2nd tropical storm of post monsoon 2022, will be named 'Mandous' as subscribed by the member country United Arab Emirates. Prior to this, storm 'Sitrang' originating over Andaman & Nicobar region as low pressure area had invaded Bangladesh in the early hours on 24th October 2022.
Low pressure area, a pre-requisite for a storm, has formed over the equatorial belt in the proximity of South Andaman Sea and Strait of Malacca. This is centred around 6.5deg N and 97.5deg E today morning. Weather system is in the midst of warm sea surface with temperature around 29deg, much above the threshold value required for sustenance and intensification. Low pressure is likely to move westward and strengthen to a depression by late evening/night tomorrow. In the subsequent 24hr, the depression is expected to escalate further to a tropical storm over Southwest BoB, off Tamil Nadu coast.
Mandous will be the 7th successive storm in the Indian Seas, in the month of December. Out of these, only one storm 'Pawan' evolved over the Arabian Sea in 2019 and that too, rather far from the Indian coastline and later headed for Somalia. Most of the storms in the Arabian Sea at this time of the year have their origin over BoB and invariably they weaken and dissipate over the sea itself. Even December cyclones of BoB have a history of weakening before making landfall, albeit with few exceptions, like Vardah, a very severe cyclonic storm which crossed close to Chennai on 12th Dec 2016. Cyclonic storms are known for their delusive character in terms of defying the track, intensity and timelines.
Storm Mandous is expected to cross the coast on 08th December. Precision time and place of landfall will need another 36hr for authentic prediction. Heavy to extremely heavy rains with gale speed winds are likely to batter Tamil Nadu and Coastal Andhra Pradesh, between 7th and 9th December with a spike on 08th Dec. Later, the heavy rains will spill over to parts of Rayalaseema, South Interior Karnataka and Kerala.
