Low pressure area is likely to form over the Andaman Sea with in the next 48hr. Presently a broad cyclonic circulation is marked over the same region with an east-west trough extending from North Andaman Sea to North Coastal Tamil Nadu, across Bay of Bengal (BoB). This feature is getting consolidated and organized further, percolating down to the sea surface as low pressure area by 20th October.
The invest area for the low pressure is expected to be centered around 12°N and 93°E, in the close proximity of chain of northern islands over Southeast BoB and North Andaman Sea. Ocean heat potential and vertical wind shear will support growth of this disturbance. The low pressure area once incepted, will have the leisure of long sea travel, essential for gathering strength and size. By virtue of deep sea positioning, the system will get upgraded to a storm, latest by 22-23 October. Favorable environmental conditions may also trigger rapid intensification to become categorized storm, before reaching the coastline.
Cyclones of October keep the entire east coast on tenterhooks, for a plausible strike. Many of these storms take recurvature along the coastline of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. Northeast-southwest orientation of the coastline does not permit a total escape and the storm invariably invades shore, making landfall anywhere along Andhra Pradesh, Odisha or West Bengal.
It is little early to predict track and course of this potential storm, Sitrang, developing over Bay of Bengal. Once the weather system becomes depression or deep depression, likely track and intensity can be predicted with greater degree reliability and confidence. As of now, suffice to say, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Odisha seem to be in the firing line of cyclone. It is not expected to travel deep inland and mostly ravage the coastal belt of these 2 states. Strict and close watch will be maintained to follow up the 1st storm of post monsoon season.
