Sea conditions are revving up over Andaman Sea. As expected, cyclonic circulation has formed over the South Andaman Sea extending up to medium levels in the atmosphere. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form soon over this region and the associated circulation will further extend to higher tropospheric levels, as its manifestation of strengthening. Convective cloud cluster over the region is supportive of its further development. Broad cyclonic circulation over South Andaman Sea and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal is also expected to contract and sharpen its outlines.
Growing genesis potential is pointing towards tropical cyclone formation over Bay of Bengal, with high confidence. Elevated probabilities of cyclogenesis suggest further upgradation of category of storm, as it travel over warm waters of ocean under favorable environmental conditions. Longer the stay, more are the chances for this weather system to sustain for incremental growth over the next few days.
There is an appreciable increase in the frequency of tropical storms from April to May. Most of these storm develop between 10°N and 15°N over Bay of Bengal. Initially, these systems move northwest and later recurve northeastward. Storms as such are known for deviating the specified norms, but the defiance is extreme during the month of May.
The whole of east coast of India, the coastal parts of Bangladesh and Arakan coast of Myanmar are liable to incidence of storms, during this month. Anticyclonic winds of the sub-tropical ridge can steer the storm, anywhere over these areas, keeping the forecaster on tenterhooks and indecisive. Volatility of intensity and track limits the authentic prediction and restrict it to merely 2-3 days, specially in the formative stage. Once the system reaches the stage of depression, there is sufficient stability and clarity for future course of action. Accordingly, entire coastline is under observation for the next 48-72hr.
Majority of the storms in the last decade during this month headed for Bangladesh and in that too, struck Chittagong frequently. However, last 2 years defied this trend and targeted Indian coastline. Amphan, a super cyclonic storm ravaged West Bengal in 2020 and Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Yaas, made landfall in Odisha in 2021. Current sea conditions though favorable for storm development, numerical models continue to lack total consensus. Accordingly, Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal go under strict watch for the next 2-3 days to pronounce verdict.