After slowly moving northwards, Cyclone Nilofar is now moving north-eastwards closer to Oman, Pakistan and Gujarat coast and is expected to hit the Indian coast during the forenoon hours of 1st November.
At present, its moving at a speed of 10 kmph in Arabian Sea and its current position is about 900 km southwest of Naliya coast in Gujarat. According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, it has covered a distance of about 30 km in last three hours and is likely to gain speed now onwards.
Currently, the system is packed with the wind speed of 170 kmph gusting up to 190 kmph. The storm is having an estimated central pressure of 950 hpa. However, we expect the cyclone to weaken significantly before making landfall near Naliya.
As per Skymet Meteorology Division in India, the storm, which at present is sustaining the strength of 'very severe cyclonic storm' will gradually weaken into a severe cyclonic storm as it approaches the coast and further into a cyclonic storm when it hits coast.
In fact, system will start showing signs of weakening in next 6 to 12 hours and it is expected that at the time of landfall, the winds will flow at the speed of 80 to 100 kmph.
There are several factors behind the weakening of the cyclone which at present is very powerful and holds great damage potential.
Firstly, the storm is moving into an area where the sea surface temperatures are relatively cooler, which will reduce the available ocean thermal energy. Secondly, the system is moving in the zone where wind sheer is high and thirdly, it will also witness entrancement of dry air as it moves closer to the coast. All factors put together will strike down the intensity of the cyclone.
This is the second cyclone to hit the Indian coast within a fortnight. Earlier, Cyclone Hudhud had battered the east coast on October 12, which had lashed out the port city, Visakhapatnam, with the maximum wind speed gusting up to 180 kmph.
Incidentally, today on October 29 a super cyclone had hit the Odisha coast in 1999, with wind speed of 260 kmph. The super cyclone had claimed around 10,000 lives and caused immense damage to crops and cattle.
