Cyclone Nilofar possesses one of the longest life span

October 29, 2014 5:34 PM

Skymet Weather Team

Cyclonic disturbances are seen in North Indian Ocean throughout the year. The disturbances enter the Indian seas – Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal - and cause tropical weather system like depression, deep depression and storms.

Cyclonic disturbances entering the Bay of Bengal have single maxima and minima i.e. they increase in number from March till September and decrease thereafter, becoming lowest in February. On the other hand, the disturbances in Arabian Sea have double maxima and minima i.e. they increase in number from March to June, decrease in August, peaks again in October to November and sharply decrease in February.

Fifty percent of cyclonic disturbances fizzle out while the rest have the potential of converting into cyclonic storms. The potential cyclonic storms on an average have a life span of 4-6 days.

Cyclone Nilofar

The existing cyclone Nilofar that originated on 23^rdOctober in the Arabian Sea is expected to have a life span of more than 10 days which is climatologically considered a fairly long period for a cyclonic storm. The cyclone is expected to make a landfall on the 1^stNovember and affect the weather till the 2^ndNovember.

Historically Speaking

A cyclonic storm from 14^thOct 1996 – 2^ndNovember 1996 had a life span of 20 days. It is one of the longest duration North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone in the history. It began its journey in the Bay of Bengal on 14^thOctober 1996. It moved westward without much development and hit the eastern Indian coastline on the 18^thOctober. It crossed South Peninsula and emerged into the Arabian Sea on the 20^thOctober. It turned towards north and became a tropical storm on the 22^ndOctober. On the 23^rd, it reached the cyclone strength though large vertical wind shear weakened it into a depression on the 26^th. The system turned southward and southwestwards and re- strengthened to a tropical storm on the 27^thOctober. The tropical storm continued west –southwestwards until the vertical wind shear weakened it into a depression on the 31st October. It crossed Socotra Island on the 31^stOctober and dissipated on the 22^nd, east of Somalia.